Wagering on papal elections has been a tradition almost as old as the Vatican itself, with historical records of betting odds going back to 1503. In a first for modern times, prediction markets have started to focus on the conclave that begins Wednesday, attracting significant wagers. Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy is currently the favorite to take over from Pope Francis, despite previous health rumors that the Vatican denied. Other contenders include Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle and Cardinal Matteo Zuppi.
Unlike political elections, where public polls and data guide bettors, Vatican politics are shrouded in mystery and secrecy. Experts note that the choice of the new pope can flip dramatically due to insider dynamics. In 2013, Cardinal Bergoglio, now Pope Francis, beat out the odds-on favorite Cardinal Scola, highlighting the unpredictability of papal votes.
This conclave is expected to be especially unpredictable, with newly meeting cardinals and hidden alliances among them. According to Stefano Maria Paci, a Vatican analyst, forecasting this election is exceptionally tough—leading to a surge in wagers. As of now, over $27 million has been bet on the conclave across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, equaling the betting volume of the Super Bowl, further showing the intrigue surrounding the Vatican’s choosing of its next leader.
