The US‑Iran war has hit the seventh month of fighting, with the US launching fresh economic sanctions while Iran continues missile attacks on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane. The original ceasefire draft signed in June—known as the Memorandum of Understanding—has now expired, leaving a hot‑spot of conflict and no clear win for either side.
Jason Campbell (Middle East Institute):
He says the US is hoping that a mix of military strikes and new sanctions will force Iran to bend. Campbell notes that the White House has shifted to a “stasis” approach, maintaining the blockade and doing periodic raids that keep the global market stable but do little to win a negotiated settlement.
Dr Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi (Chatham House):
Tabrizi argues Iran is largely unshaken, preparing for a long‑term pressure campaign and refusing to give in. She believes Tehran is waiting for a US concession—perhaps a re‑start of the ceasefire deal—before they might back down.
Nicholas Hopton (Royal United Services Institute):
Hopton cautions that the US cannot win by more attacks; instead, he recommends returning to the June ceasefire, which could lift sanctions, weaken the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and lead to a new, more open Iranian regime over time.
All three experts agree that the current strategy risks dragging the conflict into an endless spiral. The next strategic move—whether more pressure or a fresh diplomatic pact—will determine if the war can finally be brought to a close.
