Wednesday morning’s incursion of Russian drones into Polish airspace led to jets being scrambled, an emergency government meeting being called - and concerns that Europe and NATO’s resolve against Moscow may not be up to the test. Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk reported that Polish airspace was violated 19 times, with at least three drones shot down, aided by Dutch and Italian forces. While Russia responded by denying deliberate intentions, European officials strongly contested this narrative, hinting that the actions might have been a provocation. Following this incident, Tusk warned that Poland had reached its closest point to open conflict since World War II and called for discussions on NATO’s Article 4, which addresses perceived threats to member states.

Nervousness in Poland was palpable, especially given that this was not the first airspace violation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, but the scale was unprecedented. Experts are divided: some suggest poor navigation led to unintentional trespasses, while others see a deliberate strategy by Russia to unsettle NATO.

The incident serves as a critical test for NATO and Europe, with implications for how both are perceived by Russia. Any show of weakness could embolden further aggressions, as underscored by analysts who warn that responses, or lack thereof, will be carefully monitored. This incident requires thorough scrutiny, as both NATO’s integrity and the stability of European security hang in the balance.