In brief
Mexico’s monthly inflation rate jumped to 3.75% in October, the highest in three months, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Electricity, airfares and tomatoes were key contributors, and both headline and core inflation remain inside the Bank of Mexico’s target range. Banamex predicts inflation could rise to 3.9% by the end of 2026.
Mexico’s annual inflation hit 3.75% in October, the highest level in three months, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography said on Monday.
The data showed a 0.65% rise in the monthly Consumer Price Index compared with September, and a year‑on‑year increase to 3.75% from 3.57% in October 2025.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose 0.34% month over month and 3.80% year over year.
The Bank of Mexico’s target range is 3% plus or minus 1%, and both headline and core rates are inside that band.
Electricity rates were up 18.51%, airfares jumped 26.36%, and tomato prices rose 9.68% month over month.
Tremendous increases in air travel and energy costs are the main drivers of October’s higher inflation, the agency said.
The private lender Banamex warned that inflation could push higher, noting the potential for a bigger pass‑through of minimum‑wage increases and weather‑related shocks.
Banamex said, "We expect annual headline inflation to reach 3.9 percent and core inflation 3.7 percent by the end of 2026, while maintaining our 2027 forecasts for both measures at 3.9 percent."
It cautioned that stronger El‑Nino activity and higher international fertilizer prices could further lift food prices, while currency depreciation might drive up non‑food goods.
Mexico’s inflation figures are now the most closely watched indicator for the country’s monetary policy and can affect interest rates, wages and the cost of everyday goods for households.
