Nepal has become the third country in India's immediate neighbourhood to see a violent uprising topple its government in recent years. Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after more than 20 people died in clashes with police during anti-government demonstrations triggered by a social media ban. A nationwide curfew is in place and the army is attempting to bring the situation under control after protesters stormed parliament and set fire to the homes of several politicians. For many, the scenes in Kathmandu were reminiscent of the turmoil that gripped Bangladesh last year, and Sri Lanka in 2022. Though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also India's close neighbours in South Asia, Delhi's relationship with Kathmandu is special because of historic people-to-people, economic and strategic ties. Nepal shares a largely open border of more than 1,750km with five Indian states. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swiftly reacted to the unfolding events by expressing anguish over the loss of lives among young protesters. The violence is heart-rending, he stated, urging for stability and peace in Nepal during an emergency security meeting with his cabinet.

Much like it was caught off-guard by the uprising in Sri Lanka in 2022 that led to the then president's flight, analysts suggest India was surprised by events in Nepal. Any instability is a concern for India, given Nepal's strategic location bordering China’s military. With a large Nepali diaspora in India and significant trade relations, the situation remains delicate. As hope for calm returns to Kathmandu, India must navigate its relationship with various political factions while monitoring any regional implications amid ongoing tensions with Pakistan and unrest in Myanmar.