On the face of it, the announcement of phase two of President Donald Trump's peace plan for Gaza would seem like progress. But there remains a huge lack of clarity and detail about the future of the strip and the 2.1 million Palestinians who live there. Furthermore, there are many pitfalls.
First, Trump's plan demands that Hamas, as well as other groups in Gaza, agree to disarm. Announcing phase two of the deal, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said failure to do so would 'bring serious consequences.' But Hamas has so far adamantly refused to give up its weapons, which it sees as tools of resistance to Israel's decades-long military occupation. If it maintains that position, there are already far-right members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government who are champing at the bit to resume the war and 'finish the job.'
While massively diminished militarily, US intelligence has long estimated that Hamas has likely recruited more new members in Gaza than have been killed by Israel during the war. The ceasefire, which has been in place since October last year, is already fragile at best. Both sides have accused each other of repeated violations. More than 450 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since it came into force, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza. The Israeli military says three of its soldiers have been killed in attacks by Palestinian armed groups during the same period.
Secondly, there is little clarity over to what extent Israel will be required to withdraw its forces from Gaza. It has given no indication that it is willing to pull back completely, insisting it needs to maintain a strong security presence in Gaza. Israeli officials talk of 'a new reality' in Gaza, insisting that the strip will never go back to the way it was before Hamas launched its deadly attack on 7 October 2023. So, there could be continued wrangling over how far Israeli forces withdraw.
Then there is the issue of governance. Who will run Gaza, if not Hamas, which came to power after winning Palestinian elections almost exactly 20 years ago? Who will provide policing, security, schools, hospitals? For more than a year now, there has been the idea that some sort of International Stabilization Force could provide security in Gaza. Egypt, Turkey, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as the West Bank-based, Palestinian Authority, have all been suggested as potential countries that would make up this force. But none have committed and, again, the detail is unclear.
Under Trump's peace plan, Gaza will supposedly have three levels of governance. As the lowest level, the strip will be run by a new government of technocrats made up of figures from civil society within Gaza. The names of its members were announced on Wednesday, with Hamas having agreed to have no role in the government. Above that will be an Executive Committee based outside Gaza to oversee the new government's work. It is likely to be made up of non-Palestinians, with former British prime minister Tony Blair said to be among those who will sit on the committee.
Palestinians see having foreigners in effect running Gaza as akin to colonialism. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains utterly bleak. Since the ceasefire was announced last October, more aid has been allowed into the strip, but aid agencies say it is still nowhere near enough. Hundreds of thousands of Gazans remain homeless and are living in makeshift tents. What does the future hold for them? So, while phase two of the peace plan may seem like progress, many reasons for pessimism remain.
First, Trump's plan demands that Hamas, as well as other groups in Gaza, agree to disarm. Announcing phase two of the deal, the US Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said failure to do so would 'bring serious consequences.' But Hamas has so far adamantly refused to give up its weapons, which it sees as tools of resistance to Israel's decades-long military occupation. If it maintains that position, there are already far-right members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government who are champing at the bit to resume the war and 'finish the job.'
While massively diminished militarily, US intelligence has long estimated that Hamas has likely recruited more new members in Gaza than have been killed by Israel during the war. The ceasefire, which has been in place since October last year, is already fragile at best. Both sides have accused each other of repeated violations. More than 450 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes since it came into force, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza. The Israeli military says three of its soldiers have been killed in attacks by Palestinian armed groups during the same period.
Secondly, there is little clarity over to what extent Israel will be required to withdraw its forces from Gaza. It has given no indication that it is willing to pull back completely, insisting it needs to maintain a strong security presence in Gaza. Israeli officials talk of 'a new reality' in Gaza, insisting that the strip will never go back to the way it was before Hamas launched its deadly attack on 7 October 2023. So, there could be continued wrangling over how far Israeli forces withdraw.
Then there is the issue of governance. Who will run Gaza, if not Hamas, which came to power after winning Palestinian elections almost exactly 20 years ago? Who will provide policing, security, schools, hospitals? For more than a year now, there has been the idea that some sort of International Stabilization Force could provide security in Gaza. Egypt, Turkey, the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as the West Bank-based, Palestinian Authority, have all been suggested as potential countries that would make up this force. But none have committed and, again, the detail is unclear.
Under Trump's peace plan, Gaza will supposedly have three levels of governance. As the lowest level, the strip will be run by a new government of technocrats made up of figures from civil society within Gaza. The names of its members were announced on Wednesday, with Hamas having agreed to have no role in the government. Above that will be an Executive Committee based outside Gaza to oversee the new government's work. It is likely to be made up of non-Palestinians, with former British prime minister Tony Blair said to be among those who will sit on the committee.
Palestinians see having foreigners in effect running Gaza as akin to colonialism. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains utterly bleak. Since the ceasefire was announced last October, more aid has been allowed into the strip, but aid agencies say it is still nowhere near enough. Hundreds of thousands of Gazans remain homeless and are living in makeshift tents. What does the future hold for them? So, while phase two of the peace plan may seem like progress, many reasons for pessimism remain.
