European climate agency Copernicus said on 7 November that 2026 is virtually certain to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold above pre‑industrial levels, becoming the second calendar year to do so after 2024. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) issued the forecast from Brussels, noting that a single‑year exceedance does not count as a formal breach of the long‑term climate goal, which is measured over longer periods.
Copernicus estimates a 20 % chance that 2026 could tie or surpass the record set in 2024. It also projects that the average global temperature for the 2023–2026 period will be above the 1.5°C threshold.
October was the warmest month on record worldwide, with the average surface air temperature 1.75°C higher than pre‑industrial levels, and it was the third straight month when global temperatures beat the 1.5°C mark.
