In brief
Mexico's economy is showing early signs of improvement, with manufacturing stabilizing and services expanding, according to the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives. However the change is uneven and fragile, and a sustained turnaround has not yet been confirmed. Mexico's government forecasts 1‑2% growth by 2026, after a 0.5% expansion in 2025 driven by services.
Mexico’s economy is showing early signs of improvement, with the manufacturing sector stabilizing and services and commerce returning to expansion, according to the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) on Tuesday.
In October, the IMEF manufacturing indicator edged up from 49.7 points in September to 49.8, staying just below the neutrality threshold but still in contraction for the 31st month in a row. The change signals a slowdown in the period of weakness, though the sector remains under pressure.
The IMEF non‑manufacturing indicator, which covers commerce and services, rose from 49.7 to 50.6 points, re‑entering the expansion zone after a long stretch of weakness. This shift reflects growing demand and employment in that part of the economy.
Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) cautioned:
However, the evolution of their respective trend‑cycle components suggests that the recovery remains fragile and uneven; therefore, it is still premature to confirm a shift in the cycle toward a phase of solid and sustained expansion,
Mexico’s federal government projects gross domestic product growth of between 1 % and 2 % by the end of 2026, a modest rebound after a 0.5 % expansion in 2025 driven largely by the services sector.
Last year’s growth came as services grew while industrial activity weakened, a downturn linked to trade ties with the United States.
While the indicators point to early improvement, experts say the gains are uneven across sectors and that a robust, sustained recovery has not yet materialized.
