President Donald Trump's popularity among the American public has been eroding steadily since he returned to the White House last January. While some of this is typical for second-term American presidents, Trump's initial decline also reflects ongoing public dissatisfaction with high prices and cost-of-living – issues that have propelled Democrats to wins in a growing number of elections over the past year. According to data by election analysis website The Downballot, Democrats did an average of 13% better in contested special elections in 2025 than they did in the same districts during the 2024 presidential election. The war in Iran has only exacerbated these economic concerns.
Polling company Ipsos found that 43% of the American public approved of Trump's handling of the economy at the start of his second term. By 23 June 2025, the number had dropped to 35%, a level it hovered around for the rest of the year. Three weeks into the Iran war, gas prices have surged to an average near $4 a gallon. Trump's economic approval rating, meanwhile, has fallen to 29%, lower than any mark for Joe Biden during his four years in the White House, when Americans faced a post-Covid pandemic inflation spike.
Economic anxiety contributed to Democratic defeat in 2024 and Republicans controlling the presidency and both chambers of Congress for the past year. Now it appears to be creating a drag on Trump's net approval. At the start of his second term, according to a polling average by political analyst Nate Silver, Trump enjoyed 52% approval. By 28 February, at the start of the Iran war, however, only 42% of Americans had a positive view of the president. This week, that mark had sagged to 40%.
The longer the Iran war stretches and disrupts the global economy, the greater the risk may be for Trump's administration. This sentiment was echoed at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), where right-wing politicians discussed the stakes in November's elections, expressing a need to keep the Democrats from regaining control. While a majority of the public opposes US military intervention, Trump's political base has continued to support him despite economic concerns. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed 86% of Republicans back US military action in Iran and 80% approve of Trump's handling of it. However, with independent voters, who were crucial during Trump's 2024 victory, starting to turn against him, the current political dynamics could heavily impact the elections ahead.
Polling company Ipsos found that 43% of the American public approved of Trump's handling of the economy at the start of his second term. By 23 June 2025, the number had dropped to 35%, a level it hovered around for the rest of the year. Three weeks into the Iran war, gas prices have surged to an average near $4 a gallon. Trump's economic approval rating, meanwhile, has fallen to 29%, lower than any mark for Joe Biden during his four years in the White House, when Americans faced a post-Covid pandemic inflation spike.
Economic anxiety contributed to Democratic defeat in 2024 and Republicans controlling the presidency and both chambers of Congress for the past year. Now it appears to be creating a drag on Trump's net approval. At the start of his second term, according to a polling average by political analyst Nate Silver, Trump enjoyed 52% approval. By 28 February, at the start of the Iran war, however, only 42% of Americans had a positive view of the president. This week, that mark had sagged to 40%.
The longer the Iran war stretches and disrupts the global economy, the greater the risk may be for Trump's administration. This sentiment was echoed at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), where right-wing politicians discussed the stakes in November's elections, expressing a need to keep the Democrats from regaining control. While a majority of the public opposes US military intervention, Trump's political base has continued to support him despite economic concerns. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed 86% of Republicans back US military action in Iran and 80% approve of Trump's handling of it. However, with independent voters, who were crucial during Trump's 2024 victory, starting to turn against him, the current political dynamics could heavily impact the elections ahead.
