In September 2018, as Jair Bolsonaro campaigned in the south-eastern city of Juiz de Fora, a 40-year-old man pushed through the crowd and stabbed the presidential candidate in the stomach. Images of Bolsonaro doubled over in pain, wearing a T-shirt in Brazil's football colours, were shared millions of times and broadcast endlessly on television. The former army captain survived, and the shock and commotion caused by the attack boosted his outsider image and helped carry him to victory weeks later. Seven years on, Brazil's Supreme Court has found him guilty of plotting a coup and sentenced him to more than 27 years in prison. On the face of it, Bolsonaro's career is over. However, he remains one of the most consequential politicians of recent decades, and with allies already pushing for amnesty, his influence and even the prospect of a comeback still hangs over Brazil's future.

Bolsonaro managed to turn the Brazilian right into a mass movement for the first time in history. Yet translating that into a government was another story. He assembled a cabinet with little experience in federal administration and leaned heavily on military officers to fill key posts. His administration was pro-business and aligned itself diplomatically with Donald Trump's United States. However, it also sparked international anger due to a surge in deforestation in the Amazon.

The challenges worsened during the pandemic, with Bolsonaro downplaying the seriousness of COVID-19 and advocating against essential health measures. His administration faced severe criticism for its handling of the crisis, contributing to over 700,000 deaths in Brazil between 2020 and early 2023.

Following narrow losses in the 2022 election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Bolsonaro fostered an environment of refusal to accept the election's legitimacy, culminating in a violent attempt to disrupt the democratic process. He faces imminent legal repercussions, and while confined to house arrest, discussions about amnesty for his crimes swirl.

Despite recent legal setbacks, Bolsonaro's political allies continue to negotiate support for potential amnesty, hinting that his political saga is far from over. As Brazil navigates this complex political landscape, the ramifications of Bolsonaro's past actions continue to unfold.