The US appears poised to strike Iran within days. While potential targets are predictable, the outcomes are not. If no last-minute deal can be reached with Tehran and President Donald Trump orders an attack, the consequences could vary widely.
1. **Targeted, Surgical Strikes**: US forces conduct limited strikes on military bases and the nuclear program, potentially toppling a weakened regime, leading to a transition to democracy—a highly optimistic scenario given past experiences in Iraq and Libya.
2. **Surviving Regime with Moderated Policies**: Similar to the Venezuelan model, the Iranian regime might survive but with curtailed aggressive policies, a less likely outcome considering its longstanding resistance to change.
3. **Military Rule Takes Over**: Should the regime collapse, it could be replaced by a military government, as the IRGC might seize power amidst the chaos.
4. **Retaliation Against US Forces**: Iran has vowed retaliation, potentially striking US bases or allies with ballistic missiles and drones, escalating tensions across the region.
5. **Mining the Gulf**: Iran could lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global shipping and oil supplies, a tactic it has used in the past.
6. **Attacking US Warships**: A swarm attack against US naval vessels could result in significant losses, causing a major embarrassment for the US military.
7. **Total Chaos**: The most concerning scenario involves a complete regime collapse, leading to civil war and humanitarian crises, as various ethnic groups may vie for power in a power vacuum.
As the US builds military presence near Iran, the stakes rise, and the potential for a conflict with unpredictable ramifications looms larger.
1. **Targeted, Surgical Strikes**: US forces conduct limited strikes on military bases and the nuclear program, potentially toppling a weakened regime, leading to a transition to democracy—a highly optimistic scenario given past experiences in Iraq and Libya.
2. **Surviving Regime with Moderated Policies**: Similar to the Venezuelan model, the Iranian regime might survive but with curtailed aggressive policies, a less likely outcome considering its longstanding resistance to change.
3. **Military Rule Takes Over**: Should the regime collapse, it could be replaced by a military government, as the IRGC might seize power amidst the chaos.
4. **Retaliation Against US Forces**: Iran has vowed retaliation, potentially striking US bases or allies with ballistic missiles and drones, escalating tensions across the region.
5. **Mining the Gulf**: Iran could lay sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening global shipping and oil supplies, a tactic it has used in the past.
6. **Attacking US Warships**: A swarm attack against US naval vessels could result in significant losses, causing a major embarrassment for the US military.
7. **Total Chaos**: The most concerning scenario involves a complete regime collapse, leading to civil war and humanitarian crises, as various ethnic groups may vie for power in a power vacuum.
As the US builds military presence near Iran, the stakes rise, and the potential for a conflict with unpredictable ramifications looms larger.
