Is Maduro Losing His Friends? The Shifting Dynamics with Russia and China

Sun Dec 14 2025 05:50:44 GMT+0200 (Eastern European Standard Time)

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro finds himself in uncertain waters as support from key allies Russia and China wanes amidst rising tensions with the U.S.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s relationship with Russia and China, once secure allies, is under scrutiny as both countries show limited signs of support amid escalating U.S. military actions in the Caribbean. Experts reveal that while Maduro continues to receive rhetorical backing, tangible military or financial aid is lacking, especially with the U.S. focusing on alleged drug trafficking and regime change in Venezuela. As these former allies prioritize their own international dilemmas, Maduro’s grip on power seems increasingly tenuous.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro could be forgiven for wondering who his true friends are.

Once rock solid, his reliance on his two main allies - China and Russia - now appears increasingly uncertain.

For years, both countries supported Venezuela's socialist-led government politically, financially and militarily - a relationship that began under former President Hugo Chávez, Maduro's mentor and predecessor.

But experts say that backing now seems to be largely symbolic, with statements being given in support rather than concrete military or financial aid.

This shift comes as the US has deployed air and naval forces - including a nuclear-powered submarine, spy planes and 15,000 troops - to the Caribbean.

The US has conducted strikes on boats in the region that it alleges are smuggling drugs, killing more than 80 people, and in recent days, it seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela.

The Trump administration has said the military build-up and strikes are targeting drug trafficking, and the tanker had been sanctioned. But many experts - and Maduro himself - believe Washington's real goal is regime change.

Prof Fernando Reyes Matta, director of the Centre for China Studies at Andrés Bello University in Chile, argues that Venezuela has become a far lower priority for both Beijing and Moscow, especially since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has poured enormous resources into the conflict, straining both its finances and its military. It has also faced sweeping Western sanctions.

China has shown no sign it would militarily defend Venezuela, choosing instead to condemn what it calls 'external interference' while urging restraint.

Maduro reportedly asked China and Russia for military assistance at the end of October, according to The Washington Post, but so far, Moscow has not provided any material assistance.

Both countries are aware that supporting Maduro now could bring serious repercussions, given the lack of internal backing for his regime and allegations of electoral fraud in recent elections.

As Maduro faces mounting pressures, the question remains: are his allies truly standing by him or simply offering rhetorical support to downplay U.S. intervention?