Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party has won a sweeping victory in Ethiopia’s recent election, securing 438 of 501 seats.
The landslide means Abiy will return to office for another term, expected in October. His coalition won thanks to widespread support for economic reforms, but the win was shadowed by violent incidents and political pressure.
On election day, 143 polling stations in the densely populated Tigray, Amhara and Oromia regions opened only after police stamped out armed nicknames, and the heavily‑inflected Fano militia and Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) declared the poll illegitimate. This has led to “no‑vote” protests and a curb on civic participation.
Tigray, which had been wiping up a two‑year civil war, was entirely excluded from the vote. Hard‑line factions there continue to accuse the Addis‑Ababa government of violations, sparking fears that the long‑standing war could flare again.
Eritrea, Ethiopia’s long‑standing neighbour, blames Addis‑Ababa for “imperial ambitions” over the Red Sea port that was lost when Eritrea gained independence. When war broke out in 2022, the Tigrayan insurgents allied with Eritrea, raising the stakes for a cross‑border conflict.
Regional analysts say the country is in a “dangerous scenario” – not an immediate war but a simmering powder keg that could erupt in any of the three volatile provinces.
The United Nations and the European Union have issued warnings, while the United States announced visa restrictions for “hard‑line” TPLF members, signalling a tense diplomatic policing of the fragile peace.
For now, the block sits on a razor‑edge: Abiy’s victory, the nation’s economic gains, and the looming threat of renewed fighting. Major decisions in the coming months could determine whether Ethiopia stabilises or re‑enters the war – people will only see the outcome as the political storm settles.
